***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.6 7.2 12.0 75.7 49.8 40.6 2.4 7.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.5 11.5 78.4 50.7 45.2 1.7 4.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.2 9.5 12.2 78.5 52.4 41.8 4.2 9.1 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.8 17.8 15.5 89.1 56.5 45.7 9.2 16.7 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.5 14.7 86.9 55.5 44.9 3.4 5.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.5 9.5 16.9 83.0 48.9 42.4 6.2 9.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.0 11.0 75.3 50.9 43.9 3.5 4.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.7 22.8 16.2 85.1 50.7 44.5 14.1 21.9 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.2 15.3 88.0 56.4 45.1 4.6 9.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.3 10.9 17.1 85.8 52.3 44.2 6.6 10.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.7 13.6 83.4 54.1 44.8 5.3 7.1 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.3 11.9 13.9 83.2 52.0 43.9 6.0 11.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.4 8.9 15.8 84.2 53.8 43.6 7.0 8.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.5 12.2 16.6 80.0 49.7 42.8 6.2 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 9.0 13.0 81.9 54.7 45.6 2.3 6.8 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.3 14.2 82.0 52.6 43.3 4.6 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.8 8.0 11.9 81.5 55.7 47.9 1.8 6.4 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.3 12.0 18.1 83.1 50.3 42.7 6.0 12.0 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.2 11.8 79.2 51.5 45.1 4.3 9.4 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.5 11.9 18.5 84.0 48.3 43.2 6.4 12.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.9 7.4 13.9 84.6 55.8 43.4 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.8 6.9 12.5 82.9 57.2 49.5 5.5 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.6 7.5 12.3 79.8 51.4 44.0 4.7 7.3 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.1 8.6 15.7 82.3 51.6 42.9 3.9 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.7 15.7 87.5 53.1 44.3 2.3 9.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.1 9.6 13.2 75.0 46.2 40.2 6.7 10.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.9 13.6 79.9 50.3 42.2 5.2 6.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.6 14.1 81.8 52.7 43.8 4.2 9.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.7 16.0 18.4 84.5 49.1 43.4 8.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.8 11.2 75.2 48.1 43.0 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------