***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.1 18.3 112.4 66.4 58.2 4.2 6.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.2 17.2 123.1 69.2 58.6 1.1 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.6 18.9 117.3 69.4 59.2 2.8 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.9 15.2 19.1 109.0 66.9 56.6 3.5 10.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.6 19.3 113.7 68.7 58.3 2.8 6.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.0 18.8 96.7 55.0 47.1 3.6 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.7 7.6 16.9 118.7 67.0 57.0 1.6 3.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.6 21.3 18.8 100.8 61.0 52.6 8.9 17.9 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.3 14.4 19.4 112.0 68.9 58.0 3.0 8.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.2 19.7 102.6 62.1 53.9 7.1 8.9 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.2 19.3 107.1 63.9 55.8 3.3 5.5 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.4 17.9 104.6 63.2 53.5 4.0 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 15.9 18.8 106.1 63.7 53.6 1.8 10.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.7 17.7 22.7 115.1 66.8 56.4 7.4 9.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.3 11.8 17.8 105.3 67.7 54.6 2.0 4.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.3 18.4 107.6 65.2 54.8 3.0 7.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.0 11.6 17.3 129.0 71.2 58.9 2.2 3.9 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 14.7 20.6 102.5 65.7 54.5 7.0 11.6 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 11.9 17.8 123.1 70.3 59.0 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.5 21.8 103.7 64.2 55.6 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.4 19.2 115.8 70.0 59.0 2.1 7.5 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.5 17.5 124.7 69.7 57.7 1.9 4.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.3 19.2 121.8 70.3 59.0 3.1 8.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.2 20.7 111.6 66.8 56.9 3.7 8.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.5 12.5 21.2 113.1 68.5 57.9 3.4 5.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.3 8.1 17.7 97.4 56.1 49.6 3.5 4.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.6 20.0 111.1 66.2 57.4 3.3 7.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 15.0 17.2 103.3 65.7 54.0 2.3 5.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.7 21.5 21.7 103.2 64.2 54.4 8.7 13.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.1 10.7 17.4 118.1 67.1 57.6 2.3 5.7 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------