***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 19.9 23.5 21.1 145.7 76.2 65.1 7.0 9.9 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.7 18.6 18.1 152.5 79.9 67.7 5.6 8.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.6 23.1 20.1 142.6 75.3 65.0 5.5 8.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.0 21.3 22.0 123.3 68.6 57.7 11.8 13.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 23.6 26.6 21.5 130.2 73.2 60.8 7.3 10.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.4 12.5 20.5 107.3 58.7 52.0 7.4 9.5 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 11.5 13.9 18.3 156.0 79.5 68.3 4.6 8.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.0 25.6 22.8 114.1 66.0 56.0 16.6 20.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 23.1 22.3 21.1 129.4 73.0 60.6 8.3 12.8 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.7 21.0 23.3 119.3 68.6 57.8 8.0 14.0 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.9 20.5 20.5 122.6 69.2 57.6 8.5 11.4 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 18.0 20.0 117.5 66.9 56.3 9.6 13.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.2 20.5 20.4 108.8 63.2 53.1 9.6 17.7 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 25.9 32.0 25.6 142.2 78.0 66.1 6.9 11.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.5 17.8 119.1 66.3 55.2 6.7 8.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 9.0 20.1 20.8 122.9 68.6 57.2 7.5 14.5 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.7 24.8 17.5 158.7 81.5 67.1 4.5 10.5 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 19.1 25.5 126.6 70.3 61.0 7.3 12.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.4 21.0 18.5 147.7 78.5 66.8 4.5 10.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 20.8 20.7 27.1 127.0 71.2 62.4 8.6 12.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 22.6 27.1 21.5 139.8 74.7 63.1 5.7 11.5 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.3 20.8 17.7 149.5 80.8 66.6 3.8 11.0 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 13.7 16.0 19.5 142.1 77.3 64.8 3.1 8.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 26.6 29.7 23.5 138.0 74.9 63.6 7.9 15.6 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.5 20.4 23.0 140.5 75.3 63.9 6.5 8.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.0 16.4 18.4 102.5 61.0 52.1 4.3 11.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 20.8 25.3 21.9 143.7 76.0 65.2 6.6 11.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.8 16.4 19.9 116.0 64.6 54.6 4.3 8.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 26.8 26.2 26.2 131.6 73.1 63.4 12.7 18.3 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.8 21.6 19.0 150.7 78.9 67.1 4.2 9.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------