***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 19.7 20.2 18.5 -0.7 34.1 39.5 20.2 20.6 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 19.3 19.9 18.4 -0.6 35.9 40.0 19.8 20.7 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 19.6 19.9 18.6 -0.7 33.4 39.7 19.9 20.5 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.6 13.1 16.2 -0.4 41.7 44.3 13.0 13.2 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.5 17.1 -0.5 40.0 42.6 20.2 20.6 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 18.3 19.3 15.4 0.0 54.3 49.9 18.8 19.2 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 19.0 19.5 18.4 -0.6 36.7 40.5 19.3 20.2 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.2 8.1 15.4 -0.4 45.2 44.2 7.7 8.3 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 19.4 19.9 17.6 -0.6 39.0 42.2 19.5 20.0 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.5 16.2 -0.5 40.6 43.2 19.4 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.2 -0.4 44.7 45.4 19.7 20.1 21.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 18.6 19.4 16.5 -0.2 51.8 46.7 18.7 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 19.4 20.3 16.5 -0.2 53.4 47.8 20.0 20.3 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 19.5 19.7 17.0 -0.9 30.2 36.1 19.8 20.4 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 19.4 20.9 18.1 0.0 57.7 50.8 20.1 20.4 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 20.0 21.0 16.8 -0.2 49.6 47.3 20.4 21.0 21.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 18.7 18.9 18.1 -0.8 30.5 37.7 19.0 20.1 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 19.0 18.9 15.5 -0.7 37.7 40.4 18.9 19.4 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 19.2 19.6 18.5 -0.7 34.5 39.7 19.5 20.3 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.5 13.2 -0.6 40.9 41.5 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 19.6 19.7 18.2 -0.7 32.8 39.5 19.7 20.3 21.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 19.2 19.2 17.8 -1.0 23.1 34.0 19.5 20.6 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.5 -0.7 33.0 39.9 19.8 20.9 22.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 19.3 19.5 17.1 -0.8 33.6 38.7 19.5 20.0 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 19.7 19.7 17.1 -0.7 32.5 39.1 19.7 20.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.4 16.2 0.5 66.0 56.1 19.0 19.7 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.4 19.3 17.8 -0.7 32.9 39.0 19.3 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 19.7 20.4 17.0 -0.1 50.5 48.2 20.0 20.3 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.0 14.6 -0.8 36.7 39.8 14.0 14.4 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.8 18.5 -0.6 35.2 40.2 19.5 20.3 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------