***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 21.2 23.3 20.9 0.0 50.5 48.9 21.2 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.3 23.2 21.0 0.2 52.8 50.6 22.0 23.0 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.4 23.4 21.1 0.0 50.5 49.0 21.2 23.4 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.1 18.8 0.0 50.9 49.2 14.4 16.0 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.5 19.3 -0.1 49.6 48.7 21.4 23.5 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.7 17.2 0.0 51.6 49.2 19.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 20.8 22.6 21.0 0.2 52.5 50.5 21.7 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.2 17.7 0.0 51.5 49.2 9.1 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 20.8 23.2 19.6 -0.1 49.8 48.6 20.6 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.7 18.4 -0.1 50.5 49.0 20.6 22.6 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.0 23.2 19.1 0.1 51.9 50.1 20.5 22.7 23.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.1 18.7 0.1 52.8 50.7 20.0 22.0 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.7 18.0 0.1 52.4 50.4 20.6 22.5 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.6 22.9 19.2 -0.2 44.4 47.5 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.1 23.6 19.9 0.4 56.2 52.8 21.7 22.1 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.7 18.7 0.1 52.5 50.6 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 20.4 22.0 20.8 0.2 51.3 50.3 21.1 22.0 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.0 17.9 -0.1 47.6 48.5 20.2 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.9 22.7 21.0 0.1 53.0 50.2 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.0 15.4 -0.2 50.0 48.2 15.7 17.0 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.1 23.1 20.4 -0.2 47.9 47.7 20.6 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 21.2 22.7 20.5 0.0 49.3 48.5 21.6 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.1 23.3 20.9 0.0 51.7 49.7 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.8 22.4 19.3 -0.2 46.1 48.0 20.8 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 21.2 22.5 19.2 -0.2 47.9 47.7 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 20.6 23.0 18.3 0.7 60.8 55.4 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 21.0 22.7 20.1 -0.1 49.6 48.4 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.6 23.1 19.2 0.1 53.2 50.6 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 16.8 17.0 -0.2 47.4 48.2 15.6 17.1 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 21.1 22.9 21.0 0.1 52.5 50.3 21.7 22.9 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------