***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.7 20.2 0.5 55.7 55.6 20.9 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.8 20.2 0.7 59.1 56.7 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.7 20.4 0.5 55.1 55.1 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.4 15.2 17.9 0.4 56.0 54.5 13.1 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.6 18.6 0.4 54.6 54.5 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.9 16.4 0.3 56.0 53.7 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.9 20.2 0.7 61.3 57.3 20.6 21.6 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.0 17.0 0.4 55.9 54.5 8.5 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.2 19.0 0.5 54.6 55.0 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.1 17.8 0.5 55.4 54.9 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.3 18.4 0.5 56.3 55.6 20.8 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.5 21.4 18.0 0.5 57.8 55.4 20.0 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.6 17.2 0.4 56.5 54.5 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.7 18.7 0.4 55.1 54.0 20.4 22.5 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.7 18.9 0.7 62.2 57.3 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.6 22.5 17.9 0.5 56.6 55.4 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.9 20.0 0.6 59.6 56.4 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.4 17.4 0.5 55.2 54.8 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.3 20.2 0.6 57.8 56.1 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.2 14.7 0.3 53.6 52.7 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.3 19.7 0.4 53.7 54.2 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.0 19.7 0.4 56.8 54.2 20.7 22.1 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.4 20.2 0.5 56.8 55.7 20.9 21.9 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.8 18.8 0.5 54.7 54.8 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.7 22.0 18.5 0.3 54.7 54.0 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 19.3 21.9 17.6 0.9 66.2 59.1 20.0 20.7 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.7 22.5 19.4 0.4 55.8 55.2 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 20.7 22.8 18.3 0.5 57.8 55.8 21.0 22.2 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 16.4 0.4 54.2 53.8 14.7 16.0 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.5 20.2 0.6 57.9 56.3 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------