***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 18.7 20.9 18.3 -0.2 48.0 46.4 18.9 21.0 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 17.9 20.5 18.0 -0.5 44.9 44.0 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 18.1 20.2 18.3 -0.3 46.0 46.1 19.0 20.5 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 10.7 13.6 16.1 0.4 58.2 53.2 11.7 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 18.3 20.7 17.0 0.1 54.5 50.7 19.4 20.3 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 20.5 20.4 16.1 1.4 69.4 60.1 17.8 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 17.7 19.8 18.1 -0.4 45.8 45.4 18.3 20.2 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.2 8.7 15.5 0.4 57.9 53.1 7.3 8.2 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 18.0 19.9 17.5 0.0 52.1 49.3 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 18.0 20.1 16.2 0.2 54.1 51.4 19.1 19.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 18.2 20.5 17.4 0.4 57.8 53.3 19.4 20.4 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 17.5 19.9 16.6 0.6 61.5 54.7 18.4 19.4 20.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 21.9 21.3 17.1 1.0 64.5 57.1 19.2 20.6 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 18.1 19.8 16.6 -0.8 39.9 42.2 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 18.4 20.9 18.3 0.9 66.2 56.9 18.8 20.0 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 18.6 21.5 17.1 0.8 61.9 55.6 19.8 20.6 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 17.1 19.5 17.5 -0.8 39.6 41.9 18.0 20.0 21.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 17.5 19.6 15.4 -0.1 49.9 49.3 18.5 19.6 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 17.5 19.9 18.0 -0.5 44.1 43.8 19.0 20.2 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 12.7 14.8 13.4 0.1 53.8 51.3 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 18.1 20.1 18.1 -0.3 47.3 47.2 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 17.4 19.3 17.2 -1.1 32.6 38.7 19.3 20.5 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 17.7 20.0 18.0 -0.5 43.5 44.3 19.1 20.7 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 18.0 19.8 16.9 -0.4 46.2 46.5 18.7 20.1 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 17.9 20.4 17.1 -0.1 48.4 47.6 19.0 20.5 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 21.3 21.0 16.6 1.6 71.3 62.3 18.4 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 18.0 20.2 17.7 -0.2 48.1 46.8 18.3 20.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 18.4 21.1 17.2 0.8 62.6 55.7 18.9 19.8 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.7 14.7 14.6 -0.2 50.0 49.3 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 17.8 20.3 18.2 -0.4 46.5 45.2 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------