***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 16.0 15.2 14.6 -2.8 10.6 22.1 17.5 18.3 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 15.3 13.1 14.6 -2.9 10.2 21.1 16.5 18.7 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 15.4 13.0 14.7 -2.9 11.2 23.3 16.8 18.7 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 8.8 8.4 12.1 -2.3 17.9 28.4 9.3 10.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 15.8 15.0 13.3 -2.6 15.3 26.4 16.8 18.4 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 14.7 15.5 12.0 -1.7 31.1 38.0 15.6 16.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 14.9 12.3 14.4 -2.9 8.2 20.3 16.6 18.2 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 3.3 2.7 11.4 -2.5 19.9 30.2 3.9 5.3 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 15.0 14.4 14.3 -2.6 15.4 25.9 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 15.4 14.7 12.4 -2.7 16.7 27.3 16.6 18.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 15.5 15.5 13.8 -2.4 18.4 28.4 16.9 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 14.8 14.7 12.6 -2.1 22.3 32.1 15.4 16.8 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 15.8 15.9 13.6 -2.0 24.2 33.7 16.6 17.7 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 15.4 12.7 13.6 -3.1 10.1 22.8 16.8 18.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 16.0 16.0 15.1 -1.7 25.9 31.5 16.3 17.9 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 16.2 16.4 13.3 -2.2 22.1 31.5 16.7 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 14.5 11.0 14.0 -3.1 7.0 18.8 16.2 17.8 19.2 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 14.8 14.0 11.3 -3.1 13.3 25.1 16.5 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 15.5 12.8 14.6 -2.8 10.9 22.1 16.4 18.8 19.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 9.8 9.0 9.3 -2.8 17.1 28.6 10.6 11.9 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 15.2 14.1 14.7 -2.8 13.6 23.9 16.7 18.1 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 15.0 11.8 14.0 -3.2 6.7 18.2 16.7 18.6 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 15.9 13.7 14.7 -2.8 11.6 23.8 16.7 18.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 14.9 13.2 13.5 -3.1 11.8 23.7 16.5 18.1 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 15.8 14.2 13.6 -2.8 11.5 22.9 16.7 18.1 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 15.2 16.3 12.4 -1.2 37.9 39.7 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 15.5 13.1 14.0 -2.9 9.9 21.4 16.7 18.1 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 16.2 15.9 13.5 -1.9 23.7 32.0 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 9.5 8.4 10.5 -3.1 12.5 25.0 10.9 12.7 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 15.4 12.3 14.6 -2.9 9.9 21.6 16.5 18.6 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------