***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 8.2 8.4 8.6 -0.7 32.1 38.0 8.5 9.1 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.6 8.3 -0.8 26.0 34.6 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 9.5 9.4 8.6 -0.7 27.5 35.2 9.8 10.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.9 6.0 -0.7 29.4 35.4 5.0 5.2 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.2 6.5 -0.6 32.2 37.2 6.3 7.4 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.4 5.9 4.5 -0.3 41.8 43.7 5.6 6.1 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 7.8 7.5 8.3 -0.8 27.0 35.0 7.9 8.9 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 0.0 0.4 4.1 -0.6 30.6 37.5 0.5 1.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.3 6.6 -0.6 31.8 37.0 7.3 7.9 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 7.2 7.2 5.0 -0.7 28.8 36.3 7.3 8.2 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 6.8 7.1 5.9 -0.5 33.3 38.5 7.0 7.5 8.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 5.4 5.7 5.0 -0.5 35.1 38.9 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 6.5 6.9 4.9 -0.5 36.4 39.6 6.9 7.2 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 7.7 7.9 6.3 -0.8 26.2 33.5 8.1 8.6 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 8.1 8.5 7.6 -0.3 41.7 42.8 8.2 8.9 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 7.6 7.9 5.4 -0.5 35.5 39.3 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 8.0 7.8 8.0 -0.9 21.5 31.8 8.5 9.3 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.2 5.3 4.3 -0.7 26.6 35.8 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 7.8 7.5 8.3 -0.8 26.1 34.6 8.2 8.8 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.2 2.4 -0.7 27.7 38.8 2.4 2.8 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 7.0 7.2 7.9 -0.7 30.6 36.4 7.3 7.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 7.3 6.9 7.9 -0.9 20.8 30.9 7.7 8.6 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 7.4 7.6 8.1 -0.7 26.0 34.5 7.7 8.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 7.2 7.0 6.2 -0.8 25.2 33.4 7.3 8.2 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 7.4 7.8 7.5 -0.7 31.2 37.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.1 4.7 -0.1 46.9 47.4 6.5 7.2 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 7.7 7.8 8.1 -0.7 32.7 38.3 7.8 8.7 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 -0.5 35.5 38.8 6.4 6.8 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.6 -0.8 24.7 36.0 4.8 5.5 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.8 8.5 -0.7 27.1 35.4 8.1 9.0 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------