***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9.1 10.0 10.7 -0.3 46.1 45.3 9.3 10.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.5 10.4 10.5 -0.3 43.0 45.3 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.0 12.3 10.7 -0.3 45.2 45.6 10.5 12.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.2 7.2 8.2 -0.1 48.1 48.2 6.0 7.3 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.3 8.3 -0.1 49.2 48.5 7.9 8.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.3 6.4 -0.1 46.4 48.6 6.9 7.4 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.5 10.7 10.5 -0.3 43.4 45.2 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.9 6.2 -0.1 46.8 47.7 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.4 8.6 -0.2 46.6 47.7 8.8 9.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.3 7.0 -0.2 46.1 47.2 9.0 9.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.9 7.7 -0.1 48.3 48.9 8.4 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.4 6.8 -0.1 46.6 47.9 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.3 6.4 -0.3 41.9 45.3 8.1 8.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.2 9.8 8.4 -0.3 42.0 44.8 9.5 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.6 9.5 0.0 52.6 50.7 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.6 7.1 -0.2 46.2 47.9 9.3 9.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.6 10.3 -0.4 41.4 43.9 9.8 11.0 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.6 6.3 -0.2 46.4 47.0 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.5 10.5 -0.3 43.6 45.8 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.9 4.3 -0.2 46.2 47.3 3.4 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.3 9.8 -0.3 45.1 45.8 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.2 9.7 10.1 -0.4 42.2 44.2 9.5 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.3 -0.3 44.0 46.2 9.4 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.6 9.1 8.2 -0.3 44.7 45.7 8.7 9.6 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 8.6 9.6 9.2 -0.4 45.4 44.6 9.0 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.6 6.4 0.1 51.1 52.3 7.8 8.6 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.2 10.0 -0.3 46.0 44.7 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.6 -0.1 49.0 49.1 8.1 8.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.8 7.1 5.8 -0.2 46.4 47.6 6.1 7.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.6 10.8 10.6 -0.3 44.7 45.7 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------