***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.0 9.9 9.9 0.1 51.9 51.0 9.1 9.9 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.5 9.7 0.0 48.8 50.1 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.1 9.7 -0.2 47.1 48.0 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.9 5.7 7.0 -0.2 43.8 46.5 5.5 5.8 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.6 7.1 -0.3 43.5 46.3 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.2 5.1 -0.3 40.3 47.2 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.8 9.7 0.0 46.8 50.1 8.7 9.9 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 0.7 1.4 4.9 -0.4 39.8 46.1 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.4 7.4 -0.3 43.1 46.5 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.2 5.8 -0.4 41.0 45.5 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 7.4 7.8 6.3 -0.4 39.9 45.6 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.9 6.6 5.5 -0.4 38.4 46.1 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 6.8 7.3 5.2 -0.4 37.3 44.8 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.3 7.4 -0.3 43.7 46.5 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.7 8.3 -0.1 46.8 48.0 8.8 9.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 7.9 8.7 5.8 -0.4 38.8 45.3 8.2 8.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.8 9.6 0.0 48.2 50.2 9.5 9.8 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 6.4 5.1 -0.4 40.3 44.8 5.9 6.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.7 9.6 -0.1 48.2 49.2 9.0 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 2.8 3.0 3.1 -0.4 39.8 47.2 2.8 3.4 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.2 8.9 -0.2 47.0 48.1 7.8 8.3 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.3 9.2 -0.1 46.6 48.4 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.3 9.3 -0.1 47.3 48.4 8.8 9.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.0 7.0 -0.4 42.3 44.6 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 8.1 9.1 8.5 0.0 50.4 49.8 8.4 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 6.8 7.5 5.2 -0.1 43.2 49.4 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.5 9.7 9.3 0.1 51.1 50.7 8.6 9.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.7 7.6 7.3 -0.3 42.4 46.4 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 5.7 4.5 -0.4 39.7 46.2 5.5 6.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.7 9.8 0.0 49.2 49.6 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------