***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.3 -0.5 42.6 43.9 8.3 8.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 6.7 7.3 7.7 -0.9 32.3 38.5 7.4 8.5 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 8.3 9.6 8.2 -0.6 37.6 41.5 9.2 10.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.7 4.7 5.9 -0.2 45.3 46.3 3.8 5.3 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.1 6.7 6.4 -0.3 43.5 45.8 5.8 7.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.2 4.5 0.4 57.7 52.8 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 6.5 7.3 7.8 -0.8 33.9 39.5 7.2 8.7 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -1.0 0.5 3.8 -0.3 44.4 46.8 -0.1 0.7 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 6.2 7.2 6.4 -0.4 42.9 44.6 6.4 7.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.9 4.7 -0.4 42.2 45.1 6.7 7.2 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.5 6.4 5.7 -0.2 43.4 46.9 6.1 6.7 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.2 5.4 4.9 -0.1 48.3 48.6 4.7 5.5 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.6 6.8 4.9 0.0 47.5 49.3 5.8 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 6.4 7.1 5.8 -0.8 34.9 38.8 7.0 8.1 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 6.6 8.5 7.5 0.1 54.0 50.1 7.6 8.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 6.8 7.6 5.4 0.0 47.9 49.1 7.1 7.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 6.5 7.3 7.3 -1.1 28.8 35.4 7.6 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.1 -0.4 41.8 44.7 3.9 5.8 6.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 6.5 7.4 7.7 -0.8 32.8 38.7 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.2 2.4 -0.2 45.6 47.7 1.3 2.7 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 6.2 7.1 7.6 -0.5 42.0 43.6 6.7 7.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 5.9 6.6 7.2 -1.1 28.0 34.6 6.9 7.9 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 6.2 7.2 7.5 -0.8 34.3 39.0 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.6 7.1 5.9 -0.6 38.5 41.3 6.5 7.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 6.5 7.6 7.4 -0.4 45.2 45.5 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.6 7.3 4.8 0.6 61.2 54.8 6.1 6.6 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.9 -0.4 44.3 45.2 7.1 8.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 4.7 6.6 6.5 0.0 50.8 49.2 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.1 4.5 3.4 -0.4 40.8 44.6 3.9 4.9 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 6.6 7.4 8.0 -0.7 34.6 40.2 7.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------