***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 5.3 5.1 5.6 -1.9 19.0 27.7 6.4 7.1 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 4.1 4.1 5.3 -2.0 18.6 25.7 5.7 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 6.6 6.5 5.7 -1.9 17.5 27.5 7.8 8.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.9 -2.1 16.5 27.2 1.7 2.6 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.3 3.1 4.1 -1.8 18.4 31.0 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.7 3.7 1.8 -1.3 26.8 37.0 4.1 4.4 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 4.8 4.6 5.3 -2.0 18.9 25.4 6.3 6.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 1.4 -1.7 20.8 32.9 -2.0 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.1 4.4 4.2 -1.6 20.3 31.4 5.7 6.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 4.4 3.8 2.4 -1.8 19.5 31.5 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.6 4.2 3.8 -1.5 23.7 33.3 4.9 6.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.1 2.7 -1.5 22.9 34.6 3.6 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.8 3.1 -1.2 28.1 37.0 4.8 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 5.3 4.8 3.8 -1.8 20.4 29.4 5.9 6.7 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 5.5 5.6 5.2 -1.2 28.1 34.8 5.7 6.8 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 5.0 5.1 3.4 -1.4 25.1 34.5 5.7 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 5.4 5.3 4.9 -2.1 16.8 23.2 5.9 6.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.7 -1.9 17.7 31.5 3.5 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 4.8 4.3 5.3 -1.9 18.0 26.5 5.9 6.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.9 20.1 34.7 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 4.0 3.8 5.2 -1.8 18.9 29.0 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 4.6 4.3 5.1 -2.0 16.7 24.0 5.2 5.9 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 4.2 3.7 5.2 -1.8 17.3 27.6 5.5 6.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.2 3.8 3.8 -1.9 18.5 28.8 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.8 4.8 -2.0 18.6 28.2 5.7 6.9 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.2 2.4 -1.1 31.4 40.5 4.2 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.6 4.3 5.2 -2.0 19.0 28.2 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.9 -1.6 23.3 31.9 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 1.5 0.9 0.7 -2.1 16.5 31.2 2.5 3.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 4.6 4.5 5.5 -1.9 18.8 26.4 6.2 6.9 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------