***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 49.0 38.4 59.3 91.5 45.3 45.2 35.3 42.6 48.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 41.6 40.5 55.9 96.7 52.5 49.3 23.1 37.0 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 55.1 51.4 61.0 97.5 51.5 49.8 31.9 51.0 58.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 68.8 61.9 65.1 88.0 44.9 43.9 53.6 64.7 71.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 39.9 49.2 65.2 94.6 48.7 47.1 41.3 50.0 64.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 55.3 50.6 79.3 102.2 52.2 50.1 35.0 47.9 66.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 46.6 42.7 54.7 93.0 48.4 47.1 24.9 43.1 49.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 79.1 98.1 80.1 105.6 57.3 52.3 79.9 97.1 99.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 39.8 56.5 67.0 95.8 51.3 47.6 35.3 55.6 67.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 41.8 58.2 80.9 101.9 55.1 50.9 46.3 56.3 67.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 37.0 46.7 68.6 100.4 53.0 49.5 38.2 44.3 60.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 44.4 56.0 70.6 104.7 57.1 51.1 43.5 50.6 58.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 56.3 60.8 78.8 105.0 57.4 52.1 42.9 53.3 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 60.6 58.5 87.8 107.4 60.4 55.4 43.2 48.8 67.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 32.4 42.9 60.9 89.5 46.4 45.9 32.3 47.0 54.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 52.9 47.6 71.1 100.7 52.5 49.6 35.8 47.3 61.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 30.2 45.6 53.7 92.3 49.7 45.8 27.5 45.8 58.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 66.1 78.9 91.1 108.6 62.4 55.2 46.9 60.5 79.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 53.8 51.4 58.2 98.6 53.3 50.3 35.9 49.3 60.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 58.8 60.2 92.7 109.2 59.7 55.4 48.2 55.2 62.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 50.3 46.3 61.8 93.8 49.2 47.1 38.7 46.6 55.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 41.3 39.6 57.1 94.4 50.9 47.7 29.3 39.0 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 42.2 34.3 61.7 98.6 51.7 49.9 26.9 34.0 53.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 67.4 71.8 80.5 106.2 60.5 54.7 43.3 62.5 74.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 57.6 48.8 65.6 89.7 44.2 44.4 42.3 53.0 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 52.0 52.9 74.8 107.3 60.5 53.9 43.3 49.1 53.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 49.9 40.1 63.3 90.8 44.3 44.6 29.6 41.7 57.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.5 44.0 65.2 91.4 46.4 45.7 33.0 45.6 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 77.9 94.9 94.6 112.7 65.2 57.8 57.7 69.2 97.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 44.3 36.6 57.1 96.7 50.7 49.7 20.6 36.3 51.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------