***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.9 14.9 19.5 109.1 60.9 54.0 2.0 11.0 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 18.5 114.9 62.3 55.5 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.6 12.3 19.5 114.9 64.2 55.9 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.9 20.3 21.5 111.9 63.4 57.1 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.2 15.1 20.1 111.7 63.3 55.8 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 14.8 20.2 24.7 119.0 65.8 58.7 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.1 8.1 18.0 107.0 59.3 54.7 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.6 26.3 23.2 118.6 65.4 56.3 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.4 20.1 108.4 63.5 55.0 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.3 16.6 24.0 114.7 64.3 56.0 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.4 15.2 20.5 120.6 65.6 57.3 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.1 17.1 20.7 120.1 66.8 56.6 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.7 13.8 24.3 123.6 67.5 58.7 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.9 25.7 112.3 64.3 54.8 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.5 15.0 20.5 114.6 66.2 57.6 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 16.0 21.8 119.9 65.2 58.2 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 17.7 105.0 61.4 53.4 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 16.5 26.2 114.6 62.6 55.9 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.3 16.1 19.4 118.7 64.0 56.0 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 14.0 25.7 116.4 65.1 56.6 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.8 15.7 18.8 108.3 61.7 55.3 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.3 19.5 114.0 63.6 55.0 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.4 20.0 116.4 64.8 55.6 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 19.0 23.4 114.1 64.1 55.6 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.6 15.3 21.3 107.5 60.4 54.6 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.5 14.9 22.7 126.9 67.9 58.3 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 20.7 106.6 60.4 53.8 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.5 20.9 111.8 64.0 57.4 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 23.8 26.2 116.8 64.9 56.1 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.5 18.8 115.8 61.1 55.9 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------