***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.1 17.8 110.5 64.2 52.1 2.4 8.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.4 15.5 108.1 62.6 51.9 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.2 16.8 111.4 65.0 54.1 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.9 18.4 103.2 61.0 53.2 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.4 8.9 17.9 109.5 65.2 54.6 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.2 18.7 98.8 55.7 50.9 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.7 16.2 111.0 63.4 51.6 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.6 27.5 18.5 108.8 61.2 52.5 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 11.8 18.6 112.2 65.6 54.4 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.2 13.1 20.1 110.7 63.2 53.3 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.7 16.8 109.6 63.5 53.0 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.1 16.3 106.7 61.9 52.4 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.2 12.3 18.6 102.7 59.6 51.5 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.0 21.8 108.8 64.1 55.6 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.1 17.8 106.4 64.6 52.0 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.9 17.6 104.3 61.7 51.6 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.1 15.0 103.6 60.8 51.0 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 16.7 23.2 119.6 66.6 56.6 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.9 15.3 105.1 61.4 51.9 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 14.1 22.5 117.2 62.1 54.6 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.4 17.5 109.8 64.3 54.3 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.2 14.8 96.7 59.3 49.9 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 5.7 11.9 15.3 100.8 60.8 51.7 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.1 13.8 21.1 118.4 68.0 57.0 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.8 19.0 104.3 61.9 51.9 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.9 17.3 105.5 61.6 51.6 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.3 18.9 108.8 64.3 51.7 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.8 17.8 102.0 61.7 51.9 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 23.3 23.6 122.7 68.1 57.5 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.7 16.5 113.2 65.8 53.2 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------