***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.1 13.9 91.7 57.9 48.9 5.3 6.9 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.2 13.5 97.1 60.5 51.5 2.0 4.4 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.6 14.6 95.3 59.9 48.6 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.6 11.9 14.2 76.7 49.2 42.3 4.4 12.0 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.0 10.8 15.6 90.4 55.8 47.6 5.8 8.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.5 19.8 101.3 59.3 50.6 2.9 7.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.6 12.4 89.4 57.5 48.3 3.0 5.8 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.0 19.2 18.4 99.1 56.9 49.2 11.7 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.9 16.3 93.5 56.5 48.5 5.4 9.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.5 15.3 18.6 97.7 58.2 49.1 6.0 9.0 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.5 17.0 93.1 54.4 47.4 3.4 6.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.0 17.1 97.6 56.3 48.7 4.1 7.8 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.3 18.3 94.9 57.0 47.4 2.3 9.3 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.2 12.5 21.4 109.7 65.9 51.6 6.9 9.3 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.3 12.3 69.7 47.3 40.4 1.8 5.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.0 17.9 96.1 57.5 48.9 3.8 7.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.2 13.0 96.5 61.6 49.2 3.0 6.2 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 15.5 21.1 105.8 62.6 51.0 5.3 11.5 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.5 14.5 100.1 61.2 51.4 3.9 5.4 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 10.7 20.9 97.4 55.5 48.2 6.7 8.9 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.4 15.4 93.8 57.6 48.6 4.7 9.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.4 7.6 13.5 92.3 58.7 47.7 3.3 5.4 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.4 16.0 102.0 61.1 50.4 4.5 7.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.3 19.3 103.3 63.1 50.2 5.7 8.3 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.3 16.2 92.8 54.8 49.2 3.3 7.2 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.7 16.6 91.8 53.9 44.6 3.1 5.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.6 15.0 91.6 55.8 48.7 3.0 8.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.1 14.0 78.1 50.6 43.2 1.8 5.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.1 19.4 21.9 104.7 61.8 50.1 7.3 11.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.8 13.2 92.2 57.9 49.7 2.7 6.5 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------