***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.8 5.8 8.1 51.5 34.5 30.2 5.3 8.8 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.6 8.3 62.3 41.7 34.6 5.2 8.0 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 5.3 8.0 10.1 66.0 42.4 36.2 5.6 9.4 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 10.5 12.3 11.0 60.0 37.2 33.6 11.9 15.9 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.2 8.9 11.6 67.0 41.6 37.0 7.3 12.6 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 7.1 11.5 16.1 87.6 52.7 44.9 7.9 10.8 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.5 5.7 8.1 59.9 37.2 32.7 4.4 6.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 17.2 25.4 20.0 97.3 57.5 48.8 18.4 24.0 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 7.8 10.0 12.0 69.0 42.9 37.9 6.9 14.4 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 8.1 17.2 18.2 85.2 52.1 44.1 9.8 16.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 7.8 12.6 14.3 80.5 52.0 43.0 9.2 12.4 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.6 16.5 16.4 95.2 58.4 47.5 9.4 14.2 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.6 20.1 17.7 97.8 59.7 47.5 11.5 17.4 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.2 23.8 19.0 98.1 58.8 49.4 7.6 14.6 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 6.1 9.3 10.3 65.8 45.4 38.4 6.7 11.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 8.3 13.9 13.7 81.4 49.9 42.1 10.2 13.9 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.4 7.9 59.8 38.0 33.4 3.4 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 16.4 20.6 94.7 53.8 47.7 9.5 15.5 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.3 9.1 66.3 44.2 37.1 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.1 15.8 23.7 108.4 62.2 54.1 8.6 14.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 7.6 7.7 10.1 62.4 38.0 34.6 6.3 15.3 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.3 69.3 46.3 39.3 3.1 8.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.9 10.4 71.2 44.4 40.1 3.8 9.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 9.8 18.1 16.7 89.0 52.8 45.2 10.1 17.9 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 4.6 6.4 9.0 51.5 31.9 29.2 6.5 11.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.7 13.6 18.2 105.2 61.3 51.8 5.7 11.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.3 8.6 52.3 34.2 30.2 5.1 7.4 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.9 9.3 12.4 72.3 46.5 39.9 6.1 9.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.2 22.1 22.9 107.3 61.0 52.5 14.4 20.1 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.8 8.6 61.8 40.8 34.7 3.7 9.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------