***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 20.8 22.1 19.8 1.0 71.1 65.8 19.8 20.4 21.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 20.9 22.5 19.5 0.8 69.6 63.9 19.5 20.5 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 20.8 22.2 19.8 0.8 66.0 63.8 19.7 20.4 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.6 17.1 0.7 62.4 61.7 12.6 13.1 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 20.8 20.9 18.1 0.7 60.9 62.2 19.7 20.4 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 19.2 19.3 15.8 0.6 60.1 59.6 18.5 19.0 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 20.4 22.0 19.5 0.8 69.4 64.0 19.2 20.0 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.5 16.1 0.6 59.5 59.4 7.5 7.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 20.1 20.5 18.7 0.8 61.8 63.1 19.2 19.8 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 20.0 20.7 17.1 0.7 60.7 60.7 19.1 19.7 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 20.4 20.7 18.0 0.7 60.6 60.6 19.3 20.1 21.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 19.5 19.4 17.1 0.7 60.8 60.4 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 20.4 20.7 17.0 0.7 60.4 60.4 19.5 20.2 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 20.6 21.1 18.3 0.6 60.2 60.6 19.5 20.2 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 20.6 21.1 18.5 0.8 65.4 62.8 19.9 20.2 21.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.1 17.4 0.6 60.1 60.2 20.0 20.9 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 21.0 21.5 19.3 0.8 70.4 64.4 18.8 19.9 21.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 19.7 20.3 16.5 0.6 59.1 60.1 18.6 19.4 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 20.5 22.1 19.7 0.9 70.1 64.5 19.2 20.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.7 14.1 0.7 58.2 59.9 14.1 14.5 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 20.5 20.9 19.5 0.8 61.8 63.2 19.5 20.2 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 21.7 22.1 19.2 0.8 69.7 63.6 19.4 20.4 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 21.7 22.3 19.8 1.0 71.2 65.9 19.3 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 20.2 20.8 18.3 0.7 60.3 61.2 19.1 19.9 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 20.6 21.8 18.4 0.9 68.0 65.1 19.5 20.4 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 19.7 20.2 16.3 0.9 64.3 63.8 18.6 19.5 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 20.5 21.8 19.2 1.0 71.4 66.4 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 20.6 20.8 17.5 0.6 61.1 60.0 19.7 20.2 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.2 15.7 0.6 58.2 59.8 13.7 14.4 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 20.6 22.2 19.6 0.8 69.3 64.3 19.3 20.2 22.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------