***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 23.4 21.8 19.8 -0.4 46.1 48.0 20.1 22.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.1 22.2 19.5 -0.6 43.5 46.2 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.2 21.8 19.9 -0.5 43.1 46.6 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.5 17.6 -0.5 45.5 46.9 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.5 18.2 -0.5 45.7 47.1 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 19.7 21.0 16.2 -0.5 46.6 48.0 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.4 21.3 19.5 -0.5 42.8 46.6 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.1 16.4 -0.7 44.7 45.9 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.8 21.6 18.5 -0.5 44.0 46.8 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.5 17.2 -0.6 43.8 46.3 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.8 21.4 17.9 -0.5 44.7 47.2 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 21.9 20.9 17.4 -0.6 45.1 46.7 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.9 21.7 16.8 -0.5 44.5 47.5 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.1 22.2 17.9 -0.8 39.7 43.8 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 21.7 18.4 -0.4 44.3 47.0 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.5 17.5 -0.5 45.5 47.6 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.9 19.2 -0.6 41.9 45.6 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.1 16.7 -0.7 43.3 45.6 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.7 21.4 19.6 -0.5 44.1 46.4 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.0 14.1 -0.7 45.0 45.4 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.1 21.6 19.3 -0.5 44.2 46.6 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.7 19.0 -0.7 41.0 44.6 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.1 22.0 19.6 -0.5 43.8 46.5 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.7 21.0 18.1 -0.7 41.6 45.1 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.6 18.2 -0.4 47.0 48.2 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.3 16.8 -0.3 46.9 49.3 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 21.8 19.1 -0.3 46.8 48.7 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.8 21.7 17.8 -0.5 44.0 46.6 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 15.3 15.7 -0.7 44.1 45.4 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 22.8 21.6 19.6 -0.5 43.4 46.8 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------