***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.8 19.9 0.3 54.3 53.9 21.4 22.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.7 19.6 0.2 53.4 52.8 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.7 20.2 0.4 54.3 54.5 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 13.3 15.2 17.9 0.3 54.1 53.7 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 20.8 22.7 18.6 0.4 55.4 54.5 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.9 16.7 0.5 57.1 55.7 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.3 19.5 0.1 53.4 52.1 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.8 17.0 0.4 54.8 54.4 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 20.2 22.3 19.0 0.5 56.2 54.9 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 20.2 22.1 17.8 0.5 55.8 54.7 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 20.4 22.1 18.5 0.5 55.8 55.2 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.0 21.2 18.0 0.5 55.7 55.4 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.7 17.4 0.6 56.3 55.7 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.5 18.5 0.3 51.2 53.6 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.9 18.8 0.4 54.9 54.8 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.3 18.1 0.5 56.0 55.5 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.6 19.3 0.1 50.7 52.0 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.4 17.3 0.4 56.4 54.2 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.4 22.5 19.8 0.3 54.2 54.0 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 14.3 16.1 14.8 0.4 53.9 53.6 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 20.6 22.5 19.7 0.4 54.7 54.2 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 20.7 22.3 19.3 0.2 50.3 52.3 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.7 20.0 0.5 55.3 55.6 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 20.3 21.9 18.6 0.4 54.4 54.4 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.6 18.4 0.3 54.6 53.7 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 19.1 21.1 17.2 0.7 60.3 57.2 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 20.5 22.3 19.2 0.3 54.2 53.7 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.0 18.2 0.4 53.6 54.2 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 14.6 16.3 16.4 0.3 54.0 53.6 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.4 19.7 0.3 54.6 53.3 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------