***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 21.0 21.3 19.2 1.1 65.4 60.3 18.7 20.6 21.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 20.7 21.2 18.9 0.7 59.8 56.9 18.5 20.0 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.8 21.1 19.3 1.0 64.3 59.0 18.5 20.3 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.4 13.7 16.5 1.2 66.7 61.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.9 21.1 17.6 1.1 64.7 59.7 19.1 20.1 21.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 20.4 19.3 15.1 0.7 60.7 56.9 17.6 19.0 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.4 18.7 0.6 59.3 56.5 18.0 19.8 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 15.5 0.9 62.6 58.3 7.5 8.0 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.5 18.3 1.1 65.3 59.9 18.4 19.8 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.3 16.6 1.0 62.9 58.8 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.6 17.6 1.0 63.6 58.8 19.0 20.3 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 19.8 19.7 16.5 0.9 63.9 58.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 21.7 20.8 16.5 0.7 59.9 56.8 19.3 19.9 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 20.7 21.2 17.9 0.8 58.9 56.1 18.4 20.2 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.1 18.3 1.3 68.8 62.7 18.7 19.7 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 22.2 21.1 16.9 0.9 62.7 58.0 19.6 20.3 21.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 20.2 20.1 18.6 0.6 58.0 56.3 17.4 19.6 21.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.6 15.9 0.9 60.1 57.8 18.5 19.2 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.4 20.8 19.1 0.9 61.8 58.1 17.9 19.8 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 13.6 0.9 61.3 58.0 13.8 14.3 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.9 19.1 1.1 64.4 59.4 18.9 20.2 21.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.2 18.6 0.7 58.8 56.6 18.6 19.8 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.0 21.5 19.3 1.1 64.4 59.9 18.7 20.3 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.4 20.6 17.9 0.9 61.2 57.6 18.4 19.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 20.6 21.0 18.0 1.1 64.6 60.4 18.3 19.9 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 20.7 20.0 15.6 1.0 64.4 59.3 18.5 19.3 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.8 18.6 1.0 63.9 59.9 18.2 20.1 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 21.4 21.6 17.2 1.1 66.3 60.6 18.6 19.7 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.9 15.1 0.9 59.5 57.3 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.8 19.0 0.8 61.7 57.9 18.0 20.1 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------