***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 19.0 20.5 20.1 2.8 85.1 82.9 16.6 17.5 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 20.1 20.9 20.1 2.8 86.4 83.7 16.6 18.1 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 19.9 20.7 19.9 2.4 82.5 78.9 17.0 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 12.1 12.2 16.2 1.8 74.9 72.7 9.5 10.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 19.5 19.8 17.9 2.0 76.7 73.4 16.9 17.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.9 18.3 15.3 1.7 71.7 68.5 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 19.4 20.8 20.2 3.1 88.6 85.8 16.8 17.5 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.9 7.1 15.5 1.7 71.6 69.3 3.5 5.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 19.2 19.6 18.9 2.1 76.9 74.3 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 19.1 19.2 16.8 1.9 73.2 70.9 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 19.2 19.6 17.9 1.7 72.1 70.2 16.4 17.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 18.1 18.1 16.4 1.8 72.9 70.5 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 19.1 19.4 17.4 1.9 72.9 71.5 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 19.6 20.4 18.9 2.3 79.8 76.6 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 19.1 19.5 18.6 1.8 77.4 73.8 16.5 17.3 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 19.4 19.9 17.2 1.7 71.2 69.6 17.2 17.8 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 19.0 20.6 20.1 3.3 89.5 87.2 16.0 17.1 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.9 16.1 1.9 72.9 70.9 15.4 17.2 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 19.7 20.4 20.1 2.8 86.0 82.6 16.6 17.6 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.6 14.0 2.1 73.5 71.6 9.8 11.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 19.4 20.1 19.7 2.2 78.9 75.9 16.4 17.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 20.2 21.2 20.0 3.1 88.5 85.2 16.5 17.8 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 20.1 21.1 20.2 2.8 86.7 82.2 16.9 18.1 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 19.1 19.5 18.6 2.1 77.6 74.0 16.3 17.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 19.1 20.7 19.0 2.6 83.6 80.5 16.3 17.5 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 18.2 18.6 15.7 2.2 78.7 74.7 15.7 17.0 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 19.5 20.2 19.8 3.0 86.7 84.2 16.2 17.6 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 19.0 18.8 16.9 1.5 71.4 68.9 16.4 17.8 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.6 15.6 2.1 74.3 72.0 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 19.6 20.5 20.1 2.8 86.3 83.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------