***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9.4 9.7 10.4 1.1 77.1 71.9 8.3 8.8 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 9.3 9.7 10.1 1.1 78.3 72.2 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 11.2 11.5 10.4 1.1 79.8 73.0 9.7 10.6 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.9 7.5 0.9 74.0 68.9 4.9 5.1 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 7.8 8.1 8.0 1.0 75.3 71.0 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.5 6.7 5.6 1.0 76.2 71.1 5.5 6.0 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 9.4 9.6 10.0 1.0 76.9 70.7 7.8 8.8 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 1.7 2.1 5.6 1.1 80.8 73.5 0.4 1.0 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 8.4 8.8 8.3 1.1 79.8 74.7 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 8.6 9.0 6.6 1.1 80.6 74.0 7.4 7.9 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.2 7.4 1.1 80.2 73.7 7.0 7.3 8.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 6.6 6.9 6.5 1.1 79.2 73.1 5.6 6.0 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 7.5 7.7 6.3 1.0 75.8 71.7 6.7 7.1 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 9.1 9.7 8.1 1.0 81.5 72.2 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.3 8.7 0.9 76.4 70.6 8.0 9.0 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 8.8 9.1 6.9 1.0 76.8 71.4 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.6 10.0 9.9 1.1 78.4 71.4 8.4 9.1 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.1 6.0 1.1 81.0 73.5 5.4 5.8 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 9.3 9.6 10.1 1.2 80.2 73.9 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 3.5 3.9 4.0 1.1 77.4 72.3 2.3 2.6 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 8.4 8.8 9.5 1.1 78.8 72.5 7.3 7.6 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 8.7 9.1 9.8 1.1 80.3 72.4 7.5 8.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 8.9 9.7 10.0 1.3 82.8 75.9 7.6 8.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 8.5 8.9 8.0 1.1 81.6 73.6 7.2 8.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.2 9.1 1.0 76.4 70.4 7.6 8.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.5 5.8 1.0 74.4 71.7 6.4 6.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.7 10.2 9.8 1.1 76.8 70.9 7.5 8.6 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.3 7.5 7.8 0.9 73.4 68.6 6.2 6.7 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 6.1 6.8 5.3 1.2 82.7 74.5 4.6 5.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 9.5 9.9 10.3 1.1 78.4 72.5 7.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------