***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.0 9.9 10.5 -0.3 45.4 48.6 9.0 10.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.7 10.1 -0.4 39.2 45.9 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.3 10.5 -0.2 42.5 48.1 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.1 8.1 -0.1 46.7 50.8 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.4 8.1 -0.1 44.7 50.3 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 6.3 0.2 49.9 54.4 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.6 10.1 -0.5 38.4 45.7 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.3 5.9 -0.2 44.9 49.5 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.0 8.4 -0.1 44.6 49.7 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.3 6.7 -0.2 43.6 49.0 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.0 7.5 -0.1 46.8 50.6 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.4 6.7 -0.1 48.3 51.0 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.8 6.5 0.1 49.2 52.3 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.4 8.1 -0.3 40.8 46.1 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.3 9.3 0.0 47.1 51.8 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.7 7.2 0.1 50.0 52.4 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 9.8 9.6 9.9 -0.5 37.1 44.7 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.7 6.0 -0.1 44.4 49.3 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.9 10.2 -0.3 40.3 46.7 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.7 4.0 -0.2 45.8 49.7 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.5 9.8 -0.1 46.4 49.9 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.3 9.7 -0.5 37.2 44.6 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.7 10.0 -0.2 41.9 47.5 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.4 7.9 -0.2 41.3 47.8 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.9 9.2 -0.2 47.2 50.2 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.7 6.2 0.1 52.2 53.7 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.6 9.9 -0.3 45.5 48.8 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.2 8.4 -0.1 46.8 51.1 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.9 6.7 5.4 -0.1 44.2 49.8 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.2 10.3 -0.4 39.8 46.5 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------