***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9.0 10.6 10.5 0.6 63.0 56.9 9.1 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.8 10.0 0.4 57.7 54.4 8.7 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.9 10.3 0.5 58.5 56.3 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.6 7.7 0.4 58.0 55.5 5.0 6.3 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.2 7.7 0.4 55.8 55.3 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.0 5.6 0.4 53.2 56.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.3 10.0 0.3 57.2 54.0 8.9 10.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 0.6 1.7 5.3 0.2 49.2 54.0 0.9 1.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.6 7.9 0.4 55.1 55.7 7.7 8.4 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 8.6 6.3 0.3 51.1 54.5 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.5 6.9 0.3 51.8 54.9 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.1 6.1 0.3 51.7 54.8 6.1 6.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.6 5.8 0.3 51.5 54.5 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.5 9.5 7.7 0.2 49.6 53.3 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 8.5 10.5 8.8 0.5 59.3 56.2 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.6 6.5 0.3 52.4 55.2 8.3 9.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.9 10.1 9.8 0.3 54.5 53.2 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.5 6.2 5.5 0.2 48.1 54.0 5.8 6.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.2 10.0 0.4 58.0 55.2 8.8 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.3 3.4 0.1 46.4 52.9 2.8 3.5 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.5 9.0 9.4 0.5 58.9 56.3 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 8.1 9.5 9.5 0.3 53.2 53.2 8.6 9.3 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.2 10.1 9.8 0.5 56.4 55.8 8.4 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.1 7.5 0.2 50.2 54.3 8.0 9.1 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.0 10.2 9.1 0.6 61.9 56.7 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.9 5.5 0.3 50.8 54.2 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.8 9.9 0.6 62.5 56.8 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.9 7.9 7.8 0.4 55.2 55.0 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.0 4.8 0.1 46.4 53.4 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 8.5 10.5 10.2 0.4 58.8 55.1 8.7 10.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------