***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.1 9.5 0.8 61.9 61.1 7.8 8.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.6 9.2 0.8 64.2 61.3 6.8 8.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 11.5 10.6 9.6 1.0 65.5 63.8 9.0 10.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.0 5.3 6.9 1.0 64.0 63.2 3.4 4.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 7.5 1.0 63.6 62.7 5.8 6.4 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 5.0 1.0 66.8 64.3 4.3 5.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.1 9.1 0.7 62.1 60.4 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.3 1.1 4.9 0.9 63.9 63.6 -0.1 0.7 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 8.2 7.7 7.6 1.0 64.7 63.5 6.2 7.2 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 8.3 7.8 5.9 0.9 63.6 63.5 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 7.7 7.8 6.8 1.0 66.4 64.4 5.6 6.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.1 5.8 0.9 65.6 63.8 4.5 5.8 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.5 5.7 1.0 65.2 63.8 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 9.0 8.9 7.4 1.0 65.9 63.1 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 8.9 9.1 8.2 1.0 66.6 64.5 7.4 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 9.1 8.6 6.3 1.0 66.1 63.6 6.9 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 9.7 9.5 9.0 0.8 64.9 61.2 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.2 5.4 1.0 65.1 64.1 4.3 5.4 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.6 9.3 0.9 66.0 63.0 6.9 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.2 2.7 3.5 1.0 63.3 63.9 1.5 2.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.1 8.8 0.9 64.4 63.1 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.8 9.1 0.9 64.9 62.6 6.9 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.1 9.3 1.1 68.2 65.1 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.2 7.8 7.4 1.0 66.6 64.4 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.5 8.3 0.8 59.6 59.9 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.4 5.2 1.0 66.6 63.9 5.7 6.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.5 8.9 0.8 59.6 60.2 6.6 7.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.2 6.8 7.3 1.0 66.0 64.1 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.6 4.6 1.0 64.2 63.7 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.7 9.4 9.4 0.9 64.0 61.9 7.0 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------