***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 9.9 10.9 3.3 93.7 93.0 5.9 7.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.5 10.9 3.6 96.1 95.6 5.3 6.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.5 11.6 10.9 3.2 94.4 93.2 7.8 8.4 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 4.9 5.9 7.4 2.3 87.5 85.2 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 7.2 8.5 8.6 2.7 90.3 89.1 4.1 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 6.0 6.8 5.5 2.3 87.5 86.6 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.3 10.8 3.5 95.3 94.6 5.7 6.5 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.3 6.5 3.4 94.7 94.3 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.1 9.2 3.3 95.4 95.6 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.9 9.4 7.6 3.4 95.4 95.2 5.4 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.6 8.7 8.4 3.1 94.2 93.5 4.8 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 6.1 7.0 7.3 3.1 93.3 92.6 3.6 5.0 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.2 7.0 2.6 92.9 90.1 4.9 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 8.2 10.2 9.0 3.3 95.4 94.9 5.4 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 8.3 8.7 8.7 2.2 88.4 87.3 5.8 6.9 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 8.1 8.7 7.4 2.5 91.0 88.9 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 8.1 10.0 10.8 3.7 96.1 95.7 5.9 6.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.6 7.2 7.0 3.4 95.0 94.2 3.2 4.2 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.0 10.1 10.9 3.6 96.3 96.0 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.7 4.5 5.3 3.5 95.4 94.1 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.6 8.9 10.1 3.0 93.2 92.3 5.4 6.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.5 10.9 3.6 96.4 96.2 4.8 5.6 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.7 9.5 10.8 3.7 96.8 96.8 5.4 5.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 8.1 9.4 9.0 3.3 95.2 94.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 8.0 8.9 9.8 2.9 91.2 89.6 5.6 6.1 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.9 7.2 6.2 2.6 88.4 87.6 4.4 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.7 9.6 10.5 3.1 92.5 91.3 5.3 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 6.5 6.9 7.7 2.1 85.6 84.1 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.9 6.3 6.5 3.7 96.6 95.8 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.3 11.1 3.5 95.7 95.1 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------