***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 28.0 31.5 44.6 69.1 30.2 31.0 35.3 43.3 52.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.6 40.1 69.8 31.4 31.4 25.0 36.5 47.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 32.6 31.7 42.9 67.3 28.0 29.7 32.8 50.9 57.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 46.4 50.6 50.2 68.2 24.5 29.1 56.0 61.9 67.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 35.9 33.6 47.4 66.5 26.1 27.9 41.1 48.3 66.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 32.8 30.4 57.8 72.2 25.6 29.6 35.0 45.1 66.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 24.8 24.0 38.8 67.6 28.8 29.4 25.1 43.0 48.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 81.9 76.6 56.3 72.7 28.1 30.7 78.8 97.6 102.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 34.9 33.3 48.7 67.0 26.0 28.2 36.5 50.4 69.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 40.9 42.4 56.7 70.1 27.1 29.4 46.8 57.8 67.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 35.6 36.3 47.3 67.9 26.1 28.5 37.6 47.3 62.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 44.0 43.9 49.0 71.3 28.1 30.4 45.9 51.1 61.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 36.8 39.9 55.2 72.3 25.6 30.3 42.9 55.8 62.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 36.6 41.7 59.1 71.0 30.1 31.4 44.9 49.0 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 29.7 31.7 45.3 68.6 28.5 31.7 33.3 48.3 54.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 36.0 34.8 50.0 70.0 26.4 29.7 41.2 48.7 58.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 28.1 24.0 37.5 67.3 27.6 30.0 27.5 44.9 58.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 47.2 47.0 64.3 76.0 32.8 34.0 47.0 63.6 82.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 33.7 37.2 41.7 70.7 32.4 32.1 37.3 48.8 58.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 60.0 48.5 67.3 79.3 34.7 36.1 47.3 56.4 63.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 31.2 35.1 45.0 66.2 25.7 28.2 41.0 46.6 55.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 27.4 26.9 39.1 67.4 27.0 29.8 30.7 39.0 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 25.4 28.0 44.5 71.0 33.1 32.5 28.0 33.7 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 45.4 43.0 57.5 74.1 32.7 33.5 43.3 64.6 74.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 27.1 32.7 46.7 64.1 22.8 26.5 40.6 50.1 62.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 32.3 28.9 48.5 67.7 23.5 27.1 43.9 49.0 54.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 27.0 30.1 45.4 65.8 25.3 28.0 34.1 41.7 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 30.9 26.9 49.1 69.3 26.4 30.5 34.1 45.9 52.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 59.8 58.1 66.1 78.2 34.7 35.8 56.6 76.8 99.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 24.3 20.7 40.2 67.7 28.4 29.7 22.8 36.4 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------