***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.7 9.6 12.4 68.7 42.7 35.6 8.3 10.3 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.9 5.3 11.6 67.7 42.4 35.2 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.5 8.6 11.5 65.0 42.9 35.0 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.6 13.4 13.3 65.3 43.7 35.4 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.2 7.4 11.6 59.6 40.5 33.7 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.1 10.6 16.1 76.2 45.5 41.2 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 3.7 5.6 11.0 62.7 39.8 33.6 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 10.4 20.8 15.1 74.3 44.8 39.5 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.6 8.1 11.2 56.5 38.9 32.0 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.3 12.6 14.7 67.3 42.2 36.2 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.7 9.0 11.6 63.9 42.3 36.0 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 7.5 11.9 12.8 71.8 45.6 39.2 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.3 10.1 15.5 78.2 48.4 42.2 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 7.1 10.3 16.0 70.7 43.9 37.1 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 8.7 12.6 65.4 45.2 35.7 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.8 10.6 13.2 70.5 44.9 39.0 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 4.4 5.2 11.7 69.8 43.2 35.0 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 13.3 16.8 74.5 46.4 39.0 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 7.2 14.7 12.2 71.3 44.9 36.2 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.8 13.2 17.8 80.8 48.7 41.7 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 5.8 6.4 10.8 57.8 38.5 32.3 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.0 6.8 13.0 78.5 47.3 37.1 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.5 8.1 12.7 73.4 46.6 36.5 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 6.8 17.0 14.9 71.1 44.7 37.6 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 5.9 9.4 13.1 63.4 40.5 33.4 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.8 6.2 12.7 69.6 45.2 39.3 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 5.1 11.5 12.8 65.6 40.4 34.4 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 5.6 9.0 13.3 67.5 45.1 36.5 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.7 17.9 17.5 79.4 49.0 41.0 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 3.2 7.3 11.5 65.6 41.0 34.9 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------