***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.0 3.2 14.1 82.7 51.1 43.2 1.2 2.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.9 13.9 94.5 58.2 46.2 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 6.0 14.4 87.5 54.5 44.3 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.0 9.4 14.6 80.0 48.6 42.6 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.6 15.2 83.2 47.9 43.1 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.2 19.2 93.5 54.5 48.6 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.0 4.7 13.8 91.8 57.9 44.0 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.9 17.4 16.8 87.3 49.3 44.5 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.2 16.4 85.9 48.9 43.1 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 10.8 17.6 85.1 47.8 42.9 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.0 14.6 85.2 49.8 43.9 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.9 14.6 85.1 49.7 43.7 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.0 17.4 88.6 50.0 44.9 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.5 13.0 20.8 94.0 57.8 46.0 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.7 13.1 80.7 52.7 42.2 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.8 15.5 86.0 50.6 44.5 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.7 3.7 12.8 88.7 52.6 44.0 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 12.8 19.9 90.3 51.1 44.5 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 7.9 14.1 93.7 57.5 45.9 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.4 20.5 96.4 55.2 47.4 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.1 15.3 87.5 52.2 44.3 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.1 5.9 12.9 86.0 53.4 43.0 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.2 14.7 90.8 55.4 44.2 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.5 19.2 94.1 55.5 45.3 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.5 15.1 79.8 48.9 42.1 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.0 15.1 83.8 47.6 43.8 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.0 14.6 80.2 50.2 41.7 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.4 14.7 83.3 51.3 44.5 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.9 18.7 20.5 94.3 54.1 46.2 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.8 5.4 13.9 90.8 57.3 44.8 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------