***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.2 12.4 11.1 79.6 49.8 44.4 5.8 12.7 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.2 9.5 75.8 49.2 42.2 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.6 8.5 10.0 69.2 43.4 38.5 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.4 11.4 11.5 70.9 46.7 41.2 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.1 7.2 12.0 75.5 46.3 43.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 7.4 12.7 68.0 43.7 38.8 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.1 74.9 47.0 42.5 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.7 13.2 11.7 69.7 43.5 40.1 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.3 12.5 77.0 48.0 43.5 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.1 12.1 69.3 43.3 40.4 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.0 11.5 72.3 46.5 41.5 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.0 11.1 73.1 47.2 41.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.6 12.8 73.7 48.7 42.2 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.4 9.3 12.5 66.0 42.7 38.4 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.4 10.3 71.0 48.7 41.3 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.1 12.3 75.5 48.6 42.9 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 7.7 8.3 68.3 44.3 40.4 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 9.3 14.3 75.4 48.1 43.3 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.6 9.9 74.9 49.6 42.0 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 8.0 14.6 75.0 44.7 41.1 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.1 11.3 73.7 47.0 42.1 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.8 8.1 61.8 42.3 36.7 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.0 10.6 73.6 50.0 42.4 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.2 9.1 13.4 74.2 47.5 42.4 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.0 10.7 68.1 40.2 39.3 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.0 10.6 62.5 40.9 35.0 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.5 10.6 71.8 42.7 40.6 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.2 10.9 70.3 48.1 41.3 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 11.1 14.8 75.7 48.0 42.6 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.0 9.2 70.9 45.3 39.3 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------