***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 6.8 7.7 7.0 45.2 33.3 28.8 7.5 14.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 3.9 5.6 5.2 39.4 29.2 25.8 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.3 7.4 6.9 45.7 33.9 29.5 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 9.8 12.2 10.9 57.5 38.2 33.2 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.2 8.7 49.0 34.1 30.6 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.9 7.9 9.8 49.8 30.5 28.1 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 2.5 4.2 5.0 38.8 28.9 25.8 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 17.2 22.9 12.7 60.3 37.3 34.2 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 6.6 6.9 8.6 49.1 32.6 29.8 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.5 13.2 12.3 59.2 37.4 34.5 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 7.1 10.4 9.6 51.8 35.7 31.6 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 8.8 10.1 10.5 56.7 35.6 32.1 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 9.2 7.8 9.5 48.7 32.1 29.5 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 7.3 9.0 9.7 49.9 30.6 29.7 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 5.3 8.7 9.3 58.1 44.2 34.9 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 7.0 7.9 8.9 48.9 31.0 29.8 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.1 4.7 38.1 28.9 24.6 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 9.7 13.2 13.2 63.3 37.2 35.9 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 3.8 5.9 5.6 40.6 29.2 26.2 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 8.4 13.2 14.5 65.9 38.4 37.7 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 7.4 6.1 7.7 46.3 32.8 29.3 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.2 4.0 5.0 38.1 26.4 24.7 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 5.1 4.5 6.5 43.9 30.3 27.7 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 9.2 8.8 10.1 54.8 34.9 32.5 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 5.8 6.2 7.9 44.7 30.6 29.0 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.3 5.9 10.0 55.2 33.7 32.2 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 5.2 5.8 7.4 44.7 31.7 29.2 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 5.0 6.2 10.2 56.4 39.4 32.5 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.8 17.5 13.3 63.0 38.2 35.9 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 3.4 4.0 5.6 41.4 31.8 27.5 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------