***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 21.8 22.7 20.1 1.9 85.8 77.4 19.5 20.2 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 22.2 22.8 20.6 2.5 89.8 83.8 19.3 20.2 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 21.7 22.5 20.3 2.0 85.0 77.3 19.5 20.1 21.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.2 16.8 1.1 73.7 66.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.8 17.8 1.1 73.6 67.0 19.5 20.2 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.5 15.4 0.9 65.4 62.9 18.1 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 21.6 22.6 20.6 2.6 91.2 84.4 19.0 19.7 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 8.7 9.2 15.8 1.0 70.3 63.7 7.1 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 20.9 21.4 18.5 1.3 76.8 69.0 19.0 19.6 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 20.6 21.1 17.0 1.2 74.4 66.9 18.9 19.4 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 21.0 21.6 17.8 1.2 76.0 67.3 18.9 19.7 20.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 20.0 20.5 17.0 1.2 75.6 66.4 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 20.9 21.2 16.9 1.2 75.4 67.5 19.0 19.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 21.4 21.9 18.3 1.3 76.7 69.2 19.3 20.1 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 21.2 22.0 18.5 1.3 79.2 69.3 19.6 19.9 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 21.3 21.7 17.3 1.3 75.9 67.8 19.7 20.6 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 21.3 22.2 20.5 2.6 92.0 85.6 18.6 19.6 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 20.3 20.7 16.3 1.1 74.0 65.4 18.4 19.2 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 21.6 22.3 20.5 2.3 88.0 82.0 18.8 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.2 13.6 0.8 64.8 60.8 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 21.4 22.0 19.3 1.4 78.6 70.1 19.3 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 21.8 22.5 20.1 2.2 87.6 81.3 19.1 20.2 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 21.9 22.5 20.3 2.1 86.0 79.2 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 21.0 21.5 18.3 1.3 78.1 69.1 19.0 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 21.3 21.9 18.2 1.3 79.3 70.3 19.3 20.1 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.2 20.6 16.2 1.3 77.6 68.5 18.5 19.2 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 21.2 21.9 19.2 1.7 83.0 74.6 19.0 20.0 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 21.0 21.5 17.4 1.1 74.4 66.8 19.6 20.0 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 15.2 15.5 15.3 0.9 69.9 63.1 13.4 14.3 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 21.8 22.7 20.5 2.3 88.8 82.2 19.1 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------