***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 24.3 25.6 22.7 2.8 82.3 74.9 20.1 22.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 24.3 25.6 23.0 3.3 87.4 77.7 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 24.4 25.7 22.9 2.8 81.5 74.0 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.5 17.3 19.9 2.3 76.0 69.6 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.9 20.3 1.9 72.7 67.0 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 22.5 22.2 17.9 1.6 68.5 63.3 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 23.9 25.5 23.0 3.4 88.2 78.4 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 11.7 11.5 18.4 1.7 68.2 63.7 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 23.6 24.0 20.7 2.0 73.4 67.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.2 23.7 19.3 1.8 70.3 65.3 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 23.6 23.9 20.1 2.0 71.4 66.6 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 22.7 22.8 19.6 2.0 71.1 66.0 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 23.9 23.5 18.9 1.9 70.2 65.6 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 23.8 23.7 20.3 1.8 70.6 65.2 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 23.9 25.3 21.0 2.6 80.7 72.4 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 24.2 24.3 19.7 2.1 72.8 67.2 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 23.4 25.0 22.8 3.4 87.8 78.1 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 22.5 23.0 18.8 1.7 68.1 63.8 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 23.4 25.1 22.9 3.1 85.2 76.1 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 17.8 17.3 15.9 1.3 65.6 60.7 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 23.8 24.8 21.7 2.2 75.0 69.3 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 23.8 24.6 22.3 2.9 82.2 74.7 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 24.1 25.0 22.7 2.8 81.0 73.2 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 23.5 23.5 20.4 2.0 70.4 66.4 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 23.7 24.5 20.5 2.3 77.0 71.1 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.8 19.0 2.2 75.1 67.6 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 23.9 24.8 21.7 2.6 80.1 73.6 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 23.9 24.7 20.3 2.3 77.0 69.6 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.6 17.6 1.4 66.0 61.7 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 24.1 25.3 22.9 3.2 86.5 77.3 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------