***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 23.7 24.1 20.7 2.1 77.6 67.0 21.6 22.4 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 23.7 24.2 21.1 2.7 83.1 70.4 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 23.7 24.1 21.0 2.1 77.5 66.8 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.8 18.1 1.5 70.7 62.7 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.6 23.0 18.3 1.2 65.6 60.0 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.8 16.4 1.3 67.8 60.9 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 23.0 24.4 21.1 2.7 83.1 70.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.5 10.0 16.6 1.1 64.3 58.7 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.0 18.8 1.3 68.2 61.0 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.9 22.7 17.5 1.2 66.3 59.8 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.8 18.2 1.3 67.8 60.5 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.1 22.0 17.8 1.3 68.3 60.9 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 21.6 22.8 17.1 1.4 68.1 61.2 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 23.1 23.2 18.4 1.2 66.3 59.7 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.3 23.9 19.3 1.9 76.0 66.6 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 22.2 23.5 17.9 1.4 69.5 61.8 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 23.1 23.6 21.0 2.7 82.7 70.9 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 22.4 21.8 17.0 1.2 66.2 58.9 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 23.3 23.7 21.0 2.5 81.3 68.9 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.1 14.1 0.8 60.5 56.0 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 23.3 23.3 19.8 1.5 70.4 62.2 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 23.6 24.1 20.5 2.2 79.0 67.7 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 23.6 23.9 20.7 2.1 77.2 66.5 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.7 18.6 1.4 69.3 60.9 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 23.4 23.0 18.7 1.6 71.5 63.2 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 22.1 22.8 17.2 1.7 73.0 64.1 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 23.3 23.7 19.8 1.9 74.8 65.5 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 18.4 1.6 72.2 63.7 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.6 15.8 0.9 61.8 56.9 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 23.5 24.1 21.0 2.5 82.3 69.7 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------