***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 21.8 22.9 20.5 2.9 82.1 74.6 18.5 19.8 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 22.3 24.0 21.0 3.4 84.2 78.8 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 22.1 23.6 20.8 3.0 81.0 74.3 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.3 15.3 17.1 2.3 75.3 69.0 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 22.2 22.9 18.4 2.4 76.4 69.5 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 20.0 20.8 16.3 2.6 76.2 68.5 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 21.7 23.5 21.0 3.4 85.5 79.3 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.6 16.5 2.5 76.0 68.6 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 21.7 22.6 19.3 2.6 77.6 70.9 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 21.2 22.1 17.7 2.7 77.0 70.2 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 21.5 22.3 18.6 2.6 77.4 70.0 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.8 22.0 17.6 2.6 78.4 70.0 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 21.6 22.5 17.8 2.7 77.6 70.0 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 21.8 22.7 19.1 2.6 77.1 71.0 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 21.5 22.2 18.9 2.4 77.5 70.2 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 22.4 23.4 18.1 2.7 77.3 70.0 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 21.7 23.0 20.9 3.6 85.5 80.3 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 20.6 21.5 17.0 2.6 76.2 69.1 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 21.9 23.5 20.9 3.2 83.1 77.5 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.4 14.3 2.2 71.1 66.8 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 21.7 22.7 19.9 2.5 77.2 70.7 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 22.5 23.5 20.5 3.0 82.4 76.8 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 22.4 24.1 20.8 3.2 81.9 76.4 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 21.3 22.5 19.0 2.6 77.8 70.5 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.3 18.6 2.3 76.7 70.1 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 20.8 21.9 16.7 2.7 79.1 70.4 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 21.7 23.0 19.6 2.5 79.8 72.5 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 21.5 22.6 17.9 2.4 76.5 69.1 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 15.6 16.4 16.0 2.4 73.2 67.8 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 22.0 23.4 20.9 3.2 83.6 77.5 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------