***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 18.0 18.0 16.6 -0.1 49.0 49.4 16.5 18.0 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 17.7 18.2 17.4 0.6 61.3 58.8 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 18.2 18.1 16.7 -0.1 50.7 50.3 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.6 8.7 12.2 -1.5 32.2 33.7 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.0 14.1 -1.0 36.9 38.2 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.3 11.0 -2.1 26.0 29.7 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.9 17.4 0.7 62.2 59.9 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.5 3.6 11.8 -1.4 32.2 35.5 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.8 16.6 15.2 -0.8 39.8 41.2 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.9 16.6 13.2 -0.9 38.3 40.1 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.6 14.4 -1.1 35.0 38.2 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.0 15.8 12.8 -1.2 33.0 36.4 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.9 16.9 13.9 -1.0 37.2 39.2 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 18.1 18.0 15.4 -0.5 45.3 45.5 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 16.0 14.6 -1.6 30.6 32.0 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.3 16.9 13.7 -1.2 34.1 37.2 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.4 17.4 0.9 65.5 62.4 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.2 12.5 -1.0 38.7 39.7 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 17.7 18.1 17.3 0.5 59.2 56.9 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.8 10.1 -1.3 33.9 35.9 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 17.9 17.0 16.0 -0.7 40.6 42.0 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 17.3 17.8 17.1 0.5 60.6 57.5 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 17.8 18.2 17.0 0.3 56.5 54.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.9 17.1 15.0 -0.6 42.1 43.5 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 17.5 17.0 14.9 -0.9 40.2 40.8 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.4 15.6 11.8 -1.3 33.4 35.7 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 17.6 17.3 15.9 -0.4 47.0 46.8 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 16.0 15.7 13.1 -1.7 28.5 31.2 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.8 11.8 -1.0 37.3 39.2 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 17.7 18.1 17.2 0.4 58.1 56.1 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------