***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9.4 9.5 9.6 0.9 76.3 68.7 8.0 8.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 9.2 9.6 9.4 1.0 79.6 71.9 7.9 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 10.9 11.1 9.5 0.8 75.5 68.2 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.1 6.4 0.3 61.4 57.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.3 6.8 0.3 59.3 58.7 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 4.4 0.2 56.9 55.8 5.3 5.9 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 9.1 9.4 9.6 1.2 82.1 74.1 7.6 8.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.4 0.9 4.4 0.2 57.1 57.7 0.2 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 8.2 8.3 7.1 0.4 66.7 61.1 6.9 7.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.1 5.4 0.3 61.4 59.0 7.3 7.6 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.4 6.2 0.3 59.2 58.2 6.8 7.1 7.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 6.3 6.2 5.3 0.3 58.5 58.1 5.3 5.7 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.0 4.9 0.1 52.6 54.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 8.9 8.6 6.9 0.3 64.6 58.9 7.8 8.2 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.0 7.7 0.4 64.2 60.0 7.9 8.6 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.3 5.6 0.2 56.0 56.6 7.3 8.1 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 9.5 9.7 9.2 1.0 78.4 72.2 8.4 8.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 6.4 5.9 4.8 0.3 62.3 58.4 5.1 5.6 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.4 9.3 1.0 78.5 71.1 7.8 8.5 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.2 2.8 2.7 0.3 56.0 57.4 2.3 2.5 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 8.3 8.4 8.5 0.5 66.8 62.3 7.2 7.4 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 8.6 8.7 9.0 0.9 76.0 70.7 7.3 8.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.7 8.9 9.1 0.9 76.9 69.9 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 8.3 8.2 6.8 0.4 66.5 60.4 7.1 7.6 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 8.8 8.9 8.1 0.6 66.8 63.5 7.4 8.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 4.4 0.1 54.8 54.0 6.2 6.7 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 9.7 9.9 9.0 0.8 73.8 67.6 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.7 6.7 0.2 59.0 56.1 5.9 6.6 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 5.8 5.4 4.1 0.3 61.4 58.8 4.3 5.1 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 9.3 9.6 9.6 1.0 79.7 71.8 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------