***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.7 11.7 1.4 74.9 67.6 8.9 10.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 11.6 12.3 11.6 1.7 78.7 70.9 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 13.4 14.0 11.7 1.4 77.8 68.2 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.5 8.6 0.9 68.4 62.8 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.5 8.6 0.7 67.7 60.0 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.6 6.6 0.8 69.2 60.5 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.8 12.4 11.8 1.8 79.1 72.0 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 3.3 3.2 6.2 0.5 62.5 57.3 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.4 8.8 0.7 68.9 60.5 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.3 7.1 0.6 64.3 58.3 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 10.3 9.9 7.8 0.6 66.1 59.4 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.3 8.6 7.0 0.6 66.6 59.1 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.4 6.6 0.6 64.9 57.6 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.0 8.7 0.7 65.7 60.6 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.5 12.0 9.9 1.1 74.1 64.7 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.3 7.4 0.7 67.4 59.8 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 11.7 12.1 11.5 1.7 78.8 71.1 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.6 6.3 0.5 62.4 57.8 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.5 12.1 11.5 1.5 78.1 69.7 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.7 4.0 0.2 54.4 53.5 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.8 10.6 10.4 1.0 71.3 63.1 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.4 11.1 1.5 77.4 69.1 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.4 11.1 1.3 76.0 67.7 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.7 8.5 0.8 68.3 61.6 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.4 11.1 9.9 1.0 69.0 63.1 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.1 6.3 0.6 67.1 57.4 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 11.5 12.1 10.9 1.3 72.0 65.9 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 9.3 9.7 8.9 1.0 70.4 63.2 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 7.4 5.6 0.4 60.5 56.5 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.5 12.2 11.8 1.6 78.6 70.7 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------