***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.7 10.3 1.2 70.8 63.2 8.8 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 11.0 11.5 10.2 1.4 75.2 65.6 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 12.8 12.7 10.3 1.1 71.8 64.3 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.6 7.3 0.7 64.6 60.2 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 9.2 8.5 7.2 0.5 60.4 57.9 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.4 5.4 0.8 65.9 60.5 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.4 10.3 1.4 76.7 66.3 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 3.2 2.2 5.0 0.4 59.6 57.7 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 9.6 8.7 7.5 0.6 60.8 59.1 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 9.4 9.3 5.9 0.5 60.7 58.4 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 9.0 8.5 6.5 0.5 60.3 58.3 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.4 5.8 0.6 61.9 58.9 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.2 5.4 0.5 60.2 57.7 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 10.2 9.7 7.5 0.6 60.9 58.5 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.4 8.6 0.9 69.4 62.1 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.0 6.1 0.6 61.9 58.8 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 10.9 10.9 10.0 1.3 75.0 65.0 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 7.3 6.9 5.3 0.6 61.0 59.2 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 11.0 11.1 10.1 1.3 73.2 65.2 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.7 3.0 0.4 54.7 56.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.8 9.1 0.8 65.2 60.4 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 9.9 10.0 9.6 1.1 70.8 63.9 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.4 10.7 9.8 1.1 71.6 64.4 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 9.7 9.1 7.4 0.7 64.7 60.5 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.0 8.6 0.8 67.1 60.0 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 8.4 8.3 5.2 0.7 65.1 58.9 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.9 9.6 1.1 70.4 62.3 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 8.1 7.6 7.6 0.8 66.2 60.8 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.8 4.6 0.5 58.3 58.1 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.4 11.8 10.3 1.3 74.5 65.6 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------