***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.5 9.5 1.6 72.0 67.3 7.7 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.7 9.4 1.6 73.0 68.7 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.1 11.1 9.5 1.4 70.7 66.5 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.8 5.6 6.3 0.9 66.9 61.1 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.3 6.9 1.0 64.7 61.4 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.1 4.4 0.9 62.7 61.3 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.6 9.6 1.8 76.1 71.2 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.0 0.9 4.3 0.7 59.6 58.4 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.6 7.0 0.9 62.2 61.2 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.5 5.3 0.8 60.1 59.5 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 6.2 0.8 62.4 59.7 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.4 5.3 0.9 62.3 60.0 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.1 5.2 0.9 63.7 61.9 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.5 6.9 0.9 62.8 61.2 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.7 7.4 0.7 64.9 60.2 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.8 5.8 0.9 64.0 61.4 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.7 9.3 1.7 73.9 69.5 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.6 4.8 0.9 62.6 59.6 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 9.0 9.5 9.2 1.5 72.2 67.8 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.5 2.9 1.0 61.4 59.6 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.2 8.4 1.0 64.8 62.5 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 8.4 8.8 9.0 1.5 72.0 68.3 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 8.7 9.1 8.9 1.3 70.5 66.7 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.4 6.8 0.9 64.6 61.1 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 8.6 9.0 8.3 1.3 66.8 64.6 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.2 4.6 0.9 62.7 61.1 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.8 9.8 9.1 1.6 72.2 67.7 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.7 6.5 0.8 64.6 59.8 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.6 4.0 0.9 61.1 59.2 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.3 9.5 1.6 73.3 68.6 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------