***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.2 6.7 -0.6 39.6 41.6 6.0 6.9 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.3 5.2 6.4 -0.5 39.3 43.2 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.8 7.4 6.8 -0.6 36.9 40.8 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 0.8 0.6 3.2 -1.5 21.7 25.7 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.6 4.6 -1.0 27.7 32.9 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 2.4 2.2 1.2 -1.7 18.0 21.7 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.4 6.6 -0.4 41.8 45.5 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.5 -2.3 2.2 -0.7 33.7 36.7 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.7 4.4 4.9 -0.6 32.7 38.6 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 4.6 3.2 -0.7 34.1 37.8 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.2 4.2 -0.9 28.7 33.1 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.7 2.9 3.0 -1.0 28.6 32.7 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.5 -1.6 17.8 23.0 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.0 4.8 4.5 -0.8 31.0 35.9 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 5.3 5.4 5.0 -1.2 25.7 29.3 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 4.5 4.4 3.2 -1.4 21.1 25.8 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.4 6.1 -0.6 36.2 41.9 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.6 2.5 2.6 -0.8 32.1 35.9 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.7 5.5 6.5 -0.5 39.8 44.1 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 1.5 0.5 1.0 -0.6 36.6 39.6 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.5 4.5 5.9 -0.8 29.8 35.2 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.9 6.4 -0.5 36.5 43.2 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.3 6.4 -0.3 42.4 46.2 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.2 4.6 -0.8 32.7 36.1 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.6 4.8 5.7 -0.8 35.2 37.9 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.8 1.5 -1.8 17.1 22.1 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.9 4.9 6.3 -0.7 38.3 40.3 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 3.2 2.7 3.6 -1.7 17.6 22.6 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.8 2.0 -0.5 38.1 40.6 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.9 5.7 6.7 -0.5 41.1 44.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------