***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 48.7 85.8 41.7 40.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.7 26.5 48.8 84.7 37.8 40.9 25.0 36.5 47.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 32.6 42.8 50.4 87.5 42.7 41.1 32.8 50.9 57.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 48.7 62.4 62.7 91.9 52.2 44.9 56.0 61.9 67.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 37.4 48.9 62.8 94.1 51.0 45.4 41.1 48.3 66.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 35.0 52.4 85.5 104.1 57.3 52.2 35.0 45.1 66.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.5 28.3 49.0 84.8 38.2 40.3 25.1 43.0 48.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 82.5 99.8 69.5 96.9 56.0 47.8 78.8 97.6 102.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 35.1 46.1 61.0 94.0 47.8 44.5 36.5 50.4 69.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 41.2 58.6 69.3 95.0 52.3 45.8 46.8 57.8 67.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 37.4 53.6 60.9 97.4 55.7 47.4 37.6 47.3 62.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 44.8 58.3 60.4 97.7 56.0 48.4 45.9 51.1 61.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 40.7 57.4 71.0 97.9 54.4 48.8 42.9 55.8 62.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 35.5 47.2 63.0 89.6 44.8 42.2 44.9 49.0 81.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 31.7 49.6 57.7 91.6 51.6 45.6 33.3 48.3 54.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 38.1 50.8 66.0 98.3 56.0 48.5 41.2 48.7 58.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 28.8 29.9 47.7 82.4 36.4 39.3 27.5 44.9 58.1 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 44.9 65.0 75.3 92.1 51.8 43.7 47.0 63.6 82.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 33.7 37.9 48.6 84.8 38.3 40.5 37.3 48.8 58.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 43.5 54.6 84.6 92.5 46.6 44.8 47.3 56.4 63.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 32.1 44.2 53.4 91.0 45.1 43.1 41.0 46.6 55.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 28.5 31.9 48.0 82.0 38.3 39.6 30.7 39.0 45.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 25.4 32.4 50.6 86.2 40.6 40.4 28.0 33.7 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 42.0 61.4 63.9 90.7 48.3 42.4 43.3 64.6 74.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 32.3 46.7 60.3 85.9 43.4 41.0 40.6 50.1 62.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 34.5 46.9 63.7 95.6 47.0 47.2 43.9 49.0 54.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 29.7 41.2 55.8 84.3 41.4 39.8 34.1 41.7 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 32.7 47.2 62.4 95.5 54.9 47.5 34.1 45.9 52.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 56.1 76.8 77.3 92.1 50.0 44.1 56.6 76.8 99.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 25.7 31.5 48.9 85.1 39.9 40.7 22.8 36.4 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------