***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 14.9 114.0 66.7 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.4 16.1 120.5 63.9 56.2 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.5 16.7 14.7 112.1 65.1 54.5 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.4 22.4 18.7 112.0 65.3 52.2 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.8 17.6 111.0 65.5 52.2 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.9 20.2 97.7 59.9 49.2 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.1 16.4 122.7 62.9 57.0 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 26.7 29.9 17.6 100.5 60.8 49.9 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 16.2 16.7 110.9 64.1 52.1 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.3 17.7 102.1 60.3 50.1 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.9 16.2 107.2 65.2 51.1 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.3 17.6 15.6 102.2 63.7 50.5 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 12.4 17.9 99.4 60.5 50.4 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 20.5 18.2 108.3 64.2 55.0 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.3 18.2 17.8 113.5 66.2 52.2 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.8 15.9 17.2 104.6 63.9 51.3 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.3 14.0 16.1 118.1 64.3 56.1 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.6 19.0 99.2 59.9 50.7 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 18.7 22.6 15.5 117.0 64.1 55.7 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 18.9 21.7 99.4 60.9 51.4 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.6 21.3 15.3 114.6 68.7 53.9 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.1 12.1 15.5 111.7 64.1 55.4 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 16.4 15.2 113.7 64.9 55.9 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.6 20.1 17.0 104.2 63.0 53.0 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.1 18.4 18.6 110.6 64.5 52.2 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.8 16.1 96.4 58.5 50.1 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.5 16.2 17.4 110.5 64.1 52.5 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.2 18.0 110.6 65.9 51.9 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.0 20.1 19.4 99.3 59.9 51.1 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.2 15.7 119.6 63.4 56.2 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------