***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 98.6 58.2 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.0 13.4 85.7 53.0 46.7 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.9 8.4 14.9 102.4 60.5 50.8 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.4 12.1 18.8 105.1 62.9 53.3 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.3 19.1 111.4 62.3 53.4 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.4 27.5 119.3 65.3 58.6 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.2 13.5 84.3 52.7 46.1 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.3 21.9 21.5 113.5 63.9 55.6 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 11.1 18.8 112.3 60.9 53.0 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.9 21.4 112.7 63.7 54.5 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.3 18.8 117.4 66.5 55.5 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.6 15.0 18.9 118.9 66.7 56.7 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.3 23.0 118.3 63.3 57.0 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.0 19.4 101.6 61.4 50.4 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.8 17.2 102.8 64.8 55.0 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.1 20.9 118.9 65.8 56.2 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.6 13.1 81.4 51.0 44.7 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 16.7 23.7 109.6 62.7 52.8 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.8 13.6 88.8 54.8 47.2 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 10.8 26.7 105.8 58.4 52.3 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.6 16.1 109.0 60.6 52.4 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.6 13.5 82.1 50.8 45.1 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.8 14.8 95.0 58.4 48.6 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 13.5 20.0 108.0 64.7 52.1 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.6 9.3 17.5 98.8 57.3 50.3 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.9 20.4 113.9 61.3 55.8 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.0 16.0 95.5 56.7 49.6 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.9 18.9 108.5 66.0 54.9 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.6 20.2 24.3 107.7 61.8 52.1 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.2 13.6 89.3 54.5 47.9 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------