***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 103.5 59.1 52.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.0 14.2 102.0 58.8 52.9 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.6 14.0 104.4 61.7 53.2 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.5 13.2 15.7 99.6 58.1 50.8 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.4 10.5 16.4 108.0 60.6 52.3 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.9 22.1 111.0 65.9 54.9 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.3 14.1 101.8 58.6 53.1 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.7 20.4 19.7 121.5 70.5 56.9 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.6 16.6 113.6 63.0 53.3 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 14.6 19.3 116.9 67.7 54.7 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 10.6 16.4 114.5 68.2 54.4 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.0 15.8 16.5 116.6 70.2 56.1 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.8 12.0 18.2 104.7 60.9 53.6 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 16.7 17.0 103.7 59.5 53.0 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.0 14.2 98.5 60.5 51.2 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.1 16.8 105.2 63.4 53.0 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.3 14.1 102.4 59.9 52.3 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 15.0 20.7 107.8 64.0 52.5 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.2 14.0 101.8 57.9 52.7 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 12.8 23.7 108.5 65.2 53.0 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.3 10.6 14.5 109.2 59.7 53.1 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 14.3 105.0 58.8 53.2 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.8 14.1 103.4 57.5 53.1 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.2 12.4 17.5 106.8 61.4 52.9 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.7 15.7 94.5 54.4 49.5 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.1 16.9 114.4 63.9 54.8 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.9 15.2 97.2 56.3 50.9 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.2 15.5 102.3 61.7 51.8 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 15.5 21.4 106.4 61.7 52.7 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.3 14.1 101.7 58.8 52.9 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------