***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 37.6 22.8 22.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 3.7 2.7 5.1 34.9 21.9 20.8 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 6.2 6.1 6.8 41.2 23.3 23.1 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 8.0 10.8 9.5 53.3 28.5 27.5 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 6.5 6.9 9.6 52.1 29.0 26.9 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.3 11.8 15.6 84.9 49.5 44.2 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 1.6 2.9 5.0 34.3 20.3 20.5 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 17.3 21.9 10.7 56.1 30.1 28.8 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.9 48.0 26.7 24.9 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 8.0 9.8 10.8 54.2 29.5 27.6 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 7.7 10.0 9.5 55.7 33.5 30.4 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 9.3 9.3 9.4 57.0 31.9 30.9 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 10.5 13.1 12.0 67.4 41.1 37.0 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 7.0 6.5 8.4 46.8 25.6 25.0 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 3.8 3.0 8.5 52.9 29.0 27.8 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.0 13.5 11.0 64.7 37.9 35.0 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.0 4.4 30.8 19.4 20.3 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 8.9 6.2 11.9 54.9 24.6 26.8 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 3.5 2.8 5.6 36.9 22.9 21.6 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 7.5 8.4 12.5 55.5 27.4 28.0 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 6.6 5.3 7.5 43.5 24.1 23.5 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.8 32.5 20.5 21.5 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 4.4 3.4 6.4 40.0 23.4 22.6 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 7.7 5.8 9.5 49.1 23.5 24.8 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 4.5 3.2 8.5 44.6 23.2 22.8 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 5.2 6.0 10.3 59.9 33.8 33.0 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 3.2 3.0 7.2 40.0 22.0 21.7 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 4.6 5.4 10.1 60.8 35.8 32.4 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 11.7 13.3 12.2 56.3 28.4 28.1 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 2.7 1.8 5.5 36.1 22.5 20.8 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------