***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 18.3 -0.6 36.9 39.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.9 19.8 18.1 -0.5 38.2 41.5 19.3 20.2 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 19.1 19.7 18.3 -0.5 37.9 40.9 19.5 20.1 21.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 12.1 12.3 16.5 -0.7 33.2 37.0 12.3 13.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.5 16.8 -0.8 33.0 37.5 19.5 20.2 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 17.5 17.9 14.5 -1.1 27.4 32.3 18.1 18.7 19.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 18.6 19.3 18.0 -0.6 36.8 40.0 19.0 19.7 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 6.5 7.1 15.1 -0.8 31.4 36.8 7.1 7.6 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 18.9 19.1 17.3 -0.7 35.0 38.8 19.0 19.6 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 18.8 18.9 15.9 -0.8 33.4 37.6 18.9 19.4 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 18.9 18.8 16.3 -0.8 30.5 36.1 18.9 19.7 20.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 18.0 18.0 15.8 -0.9 30.2 35.6 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 18.6 18.8 15.4 -1.0 29.1 33.7 19.0 19.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 18.9 19.8 17.1 -0.5 40.8 41.5 19.3 20.1 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.0 19.6 17.1 -0.7 32.9 37.1 19.6 19.9 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 19.2 19.5 15.9 -0.9 29.1 34.5 19.7 20.6 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 18.3 19.4 17.8 -0.5 41.1 41.8 18.6 19.6 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 18.2 18.4 15.3 -0.7 34.0 38.8 18.4 19.2 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.6 18.2 -0.5 39.9 42.3 18.8 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.9 13.1 -0.7 34.6 39.4 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.1 19.5 18.0 -0.6 35.5 39.4 19.3 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 18.9 19.9 18.0 -0.4 42.1 43.5 19.1 20.2 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 19.1 20.1 18.2 -0.4 41.7 42.6 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 18.8 19.0 17.0 -0.6 37.1 40.0 19.0 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.0 19.5 16.9 -0.6 35.7 38.8 19.3 20.1 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 17.9 18.3 15.0 -0.9 29.4 34.5 18.5 19.2 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 18.8 19.4 17.6 -0.6 36.2 39.3 19.0 20.0 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 19.3 19.6 16.7 -0.8 31.3 35.8 19.6 20.0 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.4 14.4 -0.7 34.6 39.4 13.4 14.3 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 18.6 19.5 18.2 -0.5 37.3 40.9 19.1 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------