***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 -0.6 46.6 45.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 20.1 21.6 19.5 -0.8 42.9 44.2 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.5 20.0 -0.6 47.4 46.3 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 13.3 14.5 18.4 -0.6 45.8 46.3 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 20.6 21.6 18.5 -0.6 47.5 47.0 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.4 21.1 16.7 -0.6 52.2 47.3 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 20.0 20.7 19.4 -0.8 41.6 43.6 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.6 16.9 -0.6 46.6 46.5 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.7 18.9 -0.5 48.1 47.4 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 19.9 21.0 17.7 -0.6 46.9 47.0 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 19.6 21.0 18.0 -0.6 46.7 46.4 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 19.1 20.4 17.7 -0.7 46.1 45.8 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 19.8 21.4 17.3 -0.7 48.4 45.6 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.8 21.4 18.5 -0.6 44.2 46.2 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 20.4 21.2 18.6 -0.7 43.1 45.7 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.7 17.8 -0.6 47.7 46.0 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 19.6 20.6 19.1 -0.9 40.8 43.2 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.2 20.4 17.0 -0.6 47.2 46.8 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 20.1 21.7 19.6 -0.7 44.7 45.1 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 14.5 16.0 14.9 -0.6 47.0 46.5 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 20.1 20.9 19.6 -0.5 47.3 47.2 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.4 21.6 19.2 -0.8 43.7 43.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 20.8 21.6 19.6 -0.6 46.3 46.2 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 20.0 21.0 18.5 -0.6 46.7 46.7 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 20.1 22.0 18.5 -0.6 47.2 46.1 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.5 20.9 17.1 -0.7 48.0 45.8 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 20.0 21.3 19.1 -0.7 46.8 45.4 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 20.4 21.3 18.6 -0.7 44.8 46.3 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 14.2 15.3 16.1 -0.6 45.9 46.6 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 20.1 21.6 19.7 -0.7 44.2 44.6 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------